This interactive chart tracks housing starts data back to 1959. California, the land of golden dreams, has become America’s worst housing nightmare. Across all pundit channels — no-one has the moxy to figure out something as obvious as this. Question is…how high will it go? Just try to predict their moves, because you are in this game just for yourself. conclusions You make a lot sense. In 2008 I owed $400,000 on a $150,000 house at 7% interest with a 40 year loan. But they can be squeezed physically. Californias economy grew 4.7% in the 12 months ended in February compared to the national rate of 2.8%. IT is the opposite here, on the Eastside (Bellevue, WA). Austin isn’t as expensive, but just as bad: https://www.reddit.com/r/Austin/comments/38puzx/just_sold_our_house_in_78753_i_feel_so_bad_for/?limit=500, The mortgage interest rates are gradually rising I was reading all your articles, going, “bahahhaha!” when the economists were saying prices were gong to rise. So far no prosecutions. I almost think it still is undervalued as far as what happens in California next. It does not really make sense to bring the topic of minimum wage when it comes to so cal housing. I believe QE4 is more likely. Take care. http://www.latimes.com/local/politics/la-me-prop-13-20150610-story.html. The information provided herein must only be used by consumers that have a bona fide interest in the purchase, sale, or lease of real estate and may not be used for any commercial or any other purpose. Washington does not care about the people…. Its going to be interesting if we have another plunge. Things might be less rosy in the IE and other secondary and tertiary residential markets, but that’s always been the case. Not Chicago. Jim, I hope that you are right this time. keep on truckin’! Comparing San Francisco vs. United States Home Price Appreciation Trends since 1987 Summary: National home sales edged back 0.7% on a month-over-month (m-o-m) basis in October. Rent is outragious. It seems everything they do is to our detriment. Our government has been taken over by the corporations (and the neocons). The truth of matters is that your actions hurt other users of the monetary system (e.g. The housing market in recent years has been stuck in the same position. It is not just RINOs but liberals, too. 4) awesome companies like qcom n now illumina. The FED has proven to be a failure, it will fail again. Historical Detached & Condo Median Price in Toronto 3. But investors (those with big wallets) have pulled out dramatically early in 2014. The above mantra needs to be chanted 10,000 times each day for it to sink in. Oh, and everyone, please vote REPUBLICAN. Housing Starts: New Privately Owned Units - … Obama, Bush, Clinton, Romney and McCain are all part of the same gang. The Fed would increase interest rate sooner than later, This would increase the mortgage rate buying a house is a business transaction pure and simple. Stop voting all together at most, or, at least, for the damn sake difference, try to vote some alternative candidate to see if it can make any difference – libertarians would be good example to start with, or someone who doesn’t belong to any party at all. Is Northwest a new Kalifornia now? Subscribe to Dr. Housing Bubble’s Blog to get updated housing commentary, analysis, and information. That said, I am not advising anyone to buy in SoCal for the simple reason that values are so much better in other states. Historical Toronto Housing Graph Index: 1. I think the wad has been shot on interest rates. But what we see so far is that the FED has no intention on raising rates, moreover, QE4 will be coming later this year – beginning next year. We’ve already highlighted that 2.3 million adult Californians are living at home with their parents. Or perhaps we will see many many years of 1% home price change until the market comes back into check. Existing Home Sales Rebound. A primary residence is not an investment, but a home. However, if someone wants to buy, be my guest – I am not stopping anyone from buying. Right on track. All counties of the San Francisco Bay Area except Solano experienced year-over-year sales gain in double-digit percentages with Santa Clara posting the highest sales growth of 32.4% followed by San Mateo (29.1%). Did You Enjoy The Post? It could grow at a 2.55% pace in the next six months faster than the national 1.59 report from Mercury News. “2) best weather , everyone wants to live here”. The Fed in very interested in raising rates. Hello fellow patients. Bellevue becomes a China Town…. If I type in all caps, is my point more important? The boom and bust cycle is simply part of the California market. I suggest that the last tool the bankster government is using to prop up prices is the open border. I started reading this blog in 2008. BECAUSE 0-care taxes young, healthy, newly family forming couples at ultra stiff rates to pay for its largesse those able to take out a first mortgage for their first home purchase has COLLAPSED. In a previous article from Dr. Make sure they are against the FED because the CFR and the FED are the shadow government of US. We are moving to TX, we cant afford to stay in CA now. Please check your download folder. First 40 years as an Egyptian prince. Excerpts from the latest at MarketOracle on US Housing. Another 40 years as a shepherd in Midian. With Zolo's real estate market trends, you'll get current data on London's housing market. Not a flip. That’s because several adults are now sharing the homes formerly debt serviced by one… then two… and now 3 plus adults. A lot layoffs in the year in the coal and gas/oil industry now, a lot pressure for the healthcare industry too. I can tell you for sure that all the low unemployment numbers and highest numbers of jobs posted are all BS, Most of the jobs are low paying jobs , temp jobs, low/no benefits. Buying property gives you a leg up if you want to request immigration status before your home country starts to uncover the source of the wealth and prosecute. 1) QE consists of the Federal Reserve CASHING OUT T’ bond and T’ note holders — in a loopy way — ELIMINATING the national debt. On top of that, you have foreigners from China, Latin America, Eastern Europe and the Middle East trying to park their cash in the safest markets on earth, and Los Angeles real estate certainly qualifies. One of these years the bears will be right. A limited supply of homes for sale has led to competitive bidding that pushed prices higher and higher. We can measure housing affordability on a scale from 0 (most affordable) to 10 (least affordable) using the John Burns Affordability Index. you can’t make the payments you give the house back and ruin your credit for a few years. You have a home. We have just one months of supply… I guess, all those Kalifornians are now in Seattle. And that right there answers your question. Of course, these changes happen over years. Small ones are now leaving at this evaluation. Pray for QE4…. Whatever keeps the housing prices elevated now, the very same force, which is the FED’s monetary policies, keeps the bond market, the stock market, the subprime car loan market, and all the other markets in bubble territory. They can’t raise interest rates. the exact OPPOSITE of that which the mainstream press has been obsessing over for the whole of this year. In addition, one thing you are missing this time around is that the people buying these expensive homes are not subprime folks or people stretching to buy their first home, or people putting no money down, the folks who are buying right now are putting large down payments, have dual incomes in high paying sectors of the economy and are able to qualify for jumbo loans in a very different mortgage lending environment than the early 2000s. Housing market activity can fluctuate greatly over short time frames, says Bob Dugan, chief economist, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. . Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison TRREB Housing Market Charts. So barring another financial or economic catastrophe like the one we saw just a few years ago, I can’t really come up with a model as to how you see large price declines in these prime markets. Isn’t San Diego IN the desert? A drop in housing sales this year could plunge the market into crisis. it’s now worth 275,000. he should have walked away a long time ago<<. Republicans, Democrats? But the weather is so perfect! What are you talking about? I don’t know what Blert will make of this, but Assurant Health is shutting down due to O-Care: http://www.californiahealthline.org/articles/2015/5/11/assurant-health-to-be-sold-shut-down-in-2016-due-to-aca-related-financial-losses. Just an FYI the Bay Area is almost a mirror image of what you guys in so cal are experiencing. Prospective buyers trying to keep up with skyrocketing prices have at least had low interest rates on their side, not to mention an economy long since rebounded from the 2008 financial crisis . Today I owe $85,000 on a $400,000 “valued” house at 3.25%. intro But nowhere near what happened in 2009. But as everyone knows but a lot of people ignore that real estate in socal is a boom n bust thing.., it always was like this and it always would be like this.. >> 1) SD is locked between ocean n desert thus limited land here <> 2) best weather , everyone wants to live here <<. This trend started in 2005, while home prices held a plateau up until 2007. There is also the issue of long term care. The state is seeing a wave of households opting to rent. The LA/OC market is the epitome of this. I wouldn't want to live there. Backlinks from other websites are the lifeblood of our site and a primary source of new traffic. Real estate investments are swinging up and down, people should check the market before making a huge investment. THE 99 percent would have their asses in jail if they tried what the 1 percent got away with! Whether its Zillow value rises or falls should not concern you. When the 2008 was half over we were at 4%+ interest rates, more over, we were coming from 5.5% a few months earlier, at that time it was already too late. This last bust was pretty unique in that the entire financial bubble was built on housing. In the years ahead, California needs to radically overhaul its housing strategy, including requiring cities to plan and zone their land to accommodate more market-rate and affordable housing. Our third prediction for the California housing market in 2021 … If the minimum wage is increased, this is gonna increase cost of a lot of things which means that less money for monthly housing.. Here’s an abnormal flip. I see a whole bunch of people buying these housing who just honestly cant afford them. Ivan your Gov’t doesn’t worry about debt, matter of fact most are on a 30 day disaster in this country, live paycheck to paycheck just like Uncle Sam , if the debt was called in America would as broke as the guy asking for “brother can you spare a dime “on the corner. Ownership changes and so does the tax basis. Those going in with low down payments might be in a position where equity is at par (or below given selling costs). Even though it’s bad for Education, Healthcare, etc etc. Better do it now before they start up the firing squads. If you’re not, well, too bad. 2) best weather , everyone wants to live here Real estate funds do have to answer to investors who many not withstand severe economic shocks. Is there some new flipper show aimed at 30 year olds out? This is a perfect hipster/Taco Tuesday home (make sure you get $120,000 for a nice down payment). I think a number of commenters have hit upon it, but it is the Chinese and huge pools of hedge fund money that have predominantly driven the market for the last 5 years in California! Looking to buy? Irrigated desert, but still, IN the desert. While sudden spikes can be scary, there’s a fine line between danger and a positive trend. We’re neighbors. The current level of housing starts as of October 2020 is 1,530.00 thousand homes. It's a home. Take a look at 30 years of housing data for the LA/OC markets. I guess you just have one big happy mafia family and the AG and the president are part of it. Do you happen to work for the Government, and sit next to some guy names Gruber? I think people are trying to cash in. Yellen and the fed are too wed to the oligarch hedgefund market shapers. How’d it work out for you last time? So how do you justify a $240,000 (a 65% jump) price move in a mere 3 years. For the last 50 years all presidents come from CFR. A lot of sellers coming out of the woodwork because they are not officially above water AND they fear that this is the last chance to sell before market crashes again. Interesting how the Govt is helping the poor with their housing situation but the middle-class are left to compete with the cash buyers and investors. At the beginning of last year, the US housing market reached a 7/10, meaning it was expensive for the average buyer. Stocks are up and real estate follows. So, where as YOU think that the nation’s debt is exploding — it’s actually CONTRACTING. •American savings. Let’s take a house in California that was bought for $100,000 in 1975 by a 40 year old couple and is now worth $1,500,000, not unusual at all. The fact that the economic “recovery” since then has mainly been felt by the 1% also means that the average person does not have far to fall. The overwhelmingly large nature of first mortgages makes them — BY FAR — the dominant source of money in the economy. 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2020 california housing market graph 50 years